It was a reveling long interview that the Trump super-envoy Steve Witkoff gave to Tucker Carlsson the other day.
When Tucker Carlsson some time ago interview Putin it was the sane thing: by letting the person just talking he reveals the depth - or lack of depth - of his thinking.
Witkoff had evidently not seen that interview with Putin, since the interpretation of Russian policy that he gave was different from the approach that Putin himself outlined in his interview.
In it he extensively explain that there is no genuine nation of Ukraine, it’s all part of old Russia and must now the one way or the other return to some sort of such situation.
But that’s not what Witkoff now has taken back from his two conversations with Putin.
He is now clear that the conflict is just about the regions of Ukraine that Putin has already absorbed into Russia, and that Putin has no wider ambitions on either Ukraine or the rest of Europe.
And as for these regions Witkoff says that they are Russian and that there have been referendums there showing that. Although he doesn’t really remember their names, he’s under the illusion that they were transferred to Ukraine by Chrustjov at some point in time.
It’s of course all wrong.
Crimea was transferred, but the others certainly not. And as for referendums roughly half of the population have fled or been forced out, and the room for those that might have wished to have another view in these referendums was distinctly limited if existing at all.
In the Witkoff view the simply solution to the conflict seems to be to just recognize the regions Putin is claiming as being part of Russia. Obviously the US is ready for that step.
Putin will obviously be happy with that, but Witkoff will soon learn that this is far from enough for him.
Even sorting out the details of that will be complex. Putin lays claim to areas well beyond what he currently controls since his forces haven’t been able to get control of all parts of these regions. Witkoff will soon hear from Putin that he wants Trump to force Ukraine to withdraw from these areas.
But then will come the Putin demands banning all sorts of military and security cooperation between the Ukraine that remains and the West, as well as different changes in the domestic politics of Ukraine.
It’s likely that Putin at this stage has been forced to recognize that wider territorial conquest in Ukraine is beyond what his army can deliver, but that doesn’t mean that he will be prepared to give up his ambition for wider military and political control of the country.
Of this Witkoff seemed to be - at best - completely unaware of or - at worst - ready to just accept without further comment.
Obvious from the interview is how Putin has dragged him in with stories of his friendship with Trump. An amazing detail is that Putin had asked a prominent portrait painter in Russia to paint a portrait of Trump, and this has now evidently been delivered by Witkoff to the White House.
When will that be seen? Or is it too embarrassing to reveal to the public?
Putin has also been painting a picture to Witkoff of a much broader agreement between the US and Russia, and Witkoff speaks with enthusiasm about Arctic, energy and AI as areas where the two can work together.
Undoubtedly Putin and people around him have indicated that prospects for billions of dollars will open up if there is such a wider agreement. They know that Trump and the circles around him are deeply attracted by billions.
And then, of course, carving up Ukraine - a far away country of which they know little, to quote Chamberlain in 1938 - is just small change in the wider transaction.
The West, without Washington, has twice the PPP GDP of the US. (That is, Europe plus Canada, Australasia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore.)
Likely this grouping will quietly follow the lead of, or coordinate around, the EU. The EU is an organisation that has done the nearly impossible, by drawing together and managing to hold together, mostly, a diverse group of sovereign states over decades. The EU upholds the values of the West. Their operating system is built on pragmatism, institutions and trust.
The future looks like a simple tale waiting to unfold. It will take a few years to coalesce but it is getting up to speed fast from a standing start.
The West without Washington will quietly develop and deepen relationships between themselves. Not excluding Washington but not centring Washington. And certainly no longer simply following Washington’s lead.
Trump will create drama and then will be gone. The US will become very, very nice to the rest of the West. The West without Washington will never let the US return to the place where it was, because that was based on demonstrably misplaced strategic trust.
The US will be the biggest loser in this silliness, imo. But it may be that their sacrifice will be to the benefit of the international community and to the benefit of the international rules based order.
As a footnote, I don’t understand why anyone sees Russia as a Mearsheimer-style Great Power - apart from belligerence and nuclear missiles they can’t use, their PPP GDP is around 1/8 of the West excluding the US. They will get Ukraine? I doubt it; it is full of Ukrainians - and that army is likely to become the core of the European military one day.
Even Putin and Lavrov have never made such lies in their lives compared to what Trump, Witkoff, Musk, RFKj are generating. On all accounts. Here are only 2 recent examples:
1) Ukraine and Russian fight war over 80 years. It's like saying that Vitkov is a woman.
Tucker Carlson talking to Witkoff:
2) Nikita Khrushchev was a Ukrainian.
Facts:
Nikita Khrushchev was never a Ukrainian. His name and surname are Russian, his father is a Russian, his mother most likely Russian too.
His spoken Russian had no Ukrainian accent.
Khrushchev was born in a Russian village in Russia.